The market is not capable of being rational,but people are

28 10 2009

images[1]The news that George Soros is creating and financing a new economic thinktank  called the Institute of New Economic Thinking (INET) should not be a surprise given both the destitution of modern economics and Soros’ own conviction that traditional economics is ‘a dogma whose time has passed’. As I have argued before there is little doubt that rational or free market theories have been discredited by the reality of the financial crisis, although this does not mean that we have really been living through a period of free market economics.

However, while a reassessment of the way forward for economics is way overdue, it seems unlikely, given its brief ,that this new Institute will help very much. For a start, as Anatole Kaletsky makes clear in the Times today, it will be heavily influenced by the Behavioural Economics school of thought. This rightly rejects the spurious rationality of mainstream economics but replaces it with a view based on the belief that people are basically irrational and the future unpredictable.

To gain a genuine understanding of unpredictable reality, some unorthodox economists may employ new mathematical techniques of non-linear dynamics and chaos theory. Others may revive the literary and anecdotal traditions of the great economists of the past, building on the work of sociologists, psychiatrists, historians and political scientists disdained by the present orthodoxy. INET will try to support these new schools of thought.

As I said in my review of a book by influential behavioural economists, 

We can agree with the BEs that the market, or capitalism, is not rational in the way that rational market theorists claim. The most singularly irrational aspect of capitalism is that decisions to invest are made by individual or groups of capitalists rather than by or in the interests of the majority of people. If the prospects for profitable investment look poor, because the expected rate of profit is too low or too risky, then money flows elsewhere. In the past ten years money flowed instead into apparently safe areas such as financial derivatives based on assets like housing etc . This created an unsustainable asset bubble which inevitably crashed and burned. Phil Mullan calls this the over financialisation of the western economies, the tendency for money to try to beget more money without going through the process of productive investment in new businesses.

Crises in the financial sector are an inevitable outcome of the over financialisation of western economies. The exact day when they will happen cannot be predicted, but the continuous instability and the tendency towards crisis contained within it will always remain. But it is not inevitable that we have to have economies of this sort. The danger of Behavioural Economics is that it condemns us to a future where the vagaries of the market are a given and the only question is how to manipulate and control the activities of the irrational people engaged within it.

Once we accept that human behaviour is irrational and the future unplannable and unpredictable then we have taken out what is unique about humanity, its ability to consciously and collectively organise and influence the future. One bright spot about the current recession is that it has revealed the bankruptcy of the prevailing economic orthodoxy. It would be a great shame if the vacuum thus created were to be filled by those who have the most disdain for human rationality. This weekend I and many others will be debating the future of the economy with experts such as Lord Skidelsky, Martin Wolf and Paul Mason at this event. Come and join us.

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2 responses

1 11 2009
charlesfrith

“its ability to consciously and collectively organise and influence the future”…Really? I thought we’re on the precipice of consuming ourselves with the profit motive that economists are still most attached to. Time will tell and not too much longer I’d suggest. I hope you’re right but some behavioural intervention seems much more logical.

26 04 2010
Oh no, not Keynes again! New economic thinking urgently required « UK After The Recession

[…] can be trusted to work and thirdly, economics cannot be a science because it is driven by often irrational human behaviours. A fourth, although often tacit conclusion, is that the state has to be prepared to […]

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