On Davos and the crisis of global leadership

27 01 2010

Even if economic issues are more central to politics than ever before, argument today is less about the nature of economic systems than about the relative abilities of different politicians to administer a system on whose basic structure all are in agreement. In both Europe and the US, party identities are not now principally defined by economic differences but by questions that always crossed class lines and economic interests – nationalism and cultural identity, social liberalism versus social authoritarianism, and religious affiliation – a list to which we might now add environmental awareness. John Kay

As the international political and business elites gather in Davos for their annual away day, John Kay neatly sums up the state of modern politics.  While politicians focus on social, cultural and environmental issues, their discussion of the economy is restricted to the management of the latest crisis.

Yet at the same time there is a palpable sense that something important is missing. The FT’s Davos feature, the World in 2010,  is full of references to the failures and weaknesses of leadership at both a global and a local level. Nearly two years after the onset of the recession the world is still grappling unsuccessfully with the problems which created the financial crisis. Just to recap, here are three key issues I identified nearly a year ago in The Three Interlocking Crises of Global Capitalism.

Firstly;

The recession is severe, but what makes it worse is that it is happening when the coherence and the credibility of the political elites is at an historical low ebb.  The coexistence of a political with an economic crisis is what makes this recession so dangerous.

This has been born out completely. Remember a year ago Obama was in the first flush of his popularity and there was a sense in some quarters that new leadership had appeared to set the world on a different and better course. One year on and while the leadership of most western countries has struggled on in the same way, the big hope that Obama brought has been dimmed. Global leaders are still squabbling about the best way to constrain banking activity if at all, accompanied by a concerted campaign to ‘punish’ bankers for their supposed role in causing the crisis.

In the UK we are faced with an election choice between three parties which have little discernable differences. The main point of contention is over how far and how fast to cut public spending and introduce austerity measures. It is no wonder that a record number of people see voting as irrelevant.

Secondly;

The imbalance between productive economies like China and the less productive economies in the west lies at the heart of the recession…changing the way the world is run will be a tricky process as there will be losers as well as winners.

Events since then have reinforced this point. China in particular has come to the fore and its economy has proved much more resilient to the recession than any in the west. The stagnation of western economies and the growth of  China, India and others have added weight to the global political crisis, as agreement over issues such as rebalancing the world economy or tackling global warming have proved so far impossible.

The Chinese have continued to finance US consumption throughout the recession and western debt levels at a governmental and personal level have continued to grow. With all of the world’s major economies hoping for export led recoveries from the recession, as Martin Wolf has pointed out, there is much more scope for conflict over trade than has been the case before.

Thirdly;

The absence of opposition of any kind to capitalism today has contributed to a sense of drift and general loss of impetus in society in general and has also affected the political elites.

The absence of any alternative has been a mixed blessing for the economic system. There is no doubt that in the UK and elsewhere the absence of any kind of alternative vision has worked to the benefit of the status quo. It has been possible for employers to introduce wage freezes or cuts and short time working with little or no resistance. This  widespread acceptance of cuts in living standards has minimised social conflict and helped to stabilise society through a period of economic uncertainty.

But the problem remains that in the absence  of  any sense of a different way of organising society, the western world has become more and more conservative. This conservatism is increasingly taking the form of an anti -growth sentiment. It is important that we see this for what it is, at heart an abdication of the necessity for human development and the forward march of science and technology. People look at the failure of the market to be able to deliver consistent growth and improvement in living standards, and draw the conclusion that not only is it impossible to do so but it is probably the wrong objective anyway. In other words we are becoming resigned to a world of low growth and stagnation, causing negativity which then spreads out from the economic into the cultural and social spheres of life.

One commentator on the Davos meetings makes the point,

If the Davos crowd cannot identify a workable way to rebuild and reinvigorate the international system, it is hard to think where else the ideas will come from.

This is a question that all of us with pretensions to political change need to consider.

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4 02 2010
Our fight is not with the Chinese, but amongst ourselves « UK After The Recession

[…] Firstly, the recession has accelerated the economic balance towards China and the east. Secondly, it has destroyed the Reagan/Thatcher rhetorical commitment to free markets which underpinned most western economies. Thirdly it has revealed the ideological bankruptcy of western political parties. Kaletsky is right to point out that the failure of the meetings at Davos, and we could add of all of the global summits since the recession started, to address these issues is symptomatic of the crisis itself. There has been a studied refusal to properly debate the recession and its consequences. The western ruling elite has spent its time in the modern equivalent of a bar room brawl rather than addressing the main issues. […]

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