So we now have a government that I am guessing virtually nobody in the UK who went into the polling booths actually voted for, a Con-Lib pact. To me it feels like a kind of coup d’etat, in a very polite English kind of way of course without the martial music. This uncomfortable feeling is compounded by the announcement that a fixed term parliament of five years has been agreed. Not only did we not vote for this government but we are apparently stuck with it for five years.
Of course, there was so little between the parties in terms of policy that in practice any outcome, whether one party or a combination of the parties, would have made little difference to what is about to happen to us as a nation. As is becoming clear, all of the parties, and certainly this new government, are committed to a future of economic austerity. Already there is talk of big tax rises, both direct through capital gains tax, and indirect, through VAT. While we are still waiting for detail on public spending , events elsewhere, such as in Ireland and Spain where wage cuts in the public sector are being implemented, are surely a harbinger of what is to come.
The almost unchallenged assumption throughout mainstream politics is that austerity economics is the only way forward. Much of the already pitifully small investment planned by Labour for upgrading the infrastructure of the UK has been scrapped or threatened with delays. The third runway at Heathrow will definitely not go ahead, the Crossrail project could be canned and the high-speed rail link from London to Birmingham and beyond is in doubt.
What plans does this new government have to stimulate economic growth, which is the only alternative to austerity? There has been nothing in any of the pronouncements so far which has addressed this in any concrete sense. The focus is entirely on cutting the public spending deficit, mainly to appease the financial markets, the same markets which were invoked as a reason why this coalition had to be put in place as quickly as it was.
Indeed the mood music is that the Liberal influence will make this government even more prone to sustainability and a green agenda than the last, another way of describing low growth expectations. Both Tories and Liberals are against state involvement in the fostering and development of new industries, something Labour’s Peter Mandelson was a late convert too.
The impression of a coup d’etat by a small, elite group of mainly upper middle class men will be reinforced once the cutting starts. One consolation is that this small group, cut off from any real social base or proper legitimacy, may not even have the capacity to carry through a major attack on living standards. But by the same token neither will it have the vision or decisiveness to take the steps necessary to modernise the UK economy. We are likely to be left with the worst of all worlds, an inward looking, pessimistic and unambitious elite which tries to micromanage the UK economy at time when boldness above all is required.
NB One of the main challenges for anybody who looks at the prospects ahead and recoils, is to develop an alternative approach to the economy. This means more than anything looking at why and how economic growth must be put at the centre of economic policy. Daniel Ben-Ami has put together a very helpful list of people who are trying to work in this direction. If you wish to become part of this, do get in touch with anybody on that list.